Canada's projected medal haul drops to 28 at Winter Olympics

Analytics company adjusts prediction from 33 based on Russian inclusion, injuries

Canada's projected medal haul drops to 28 at Winter Olympics
Canadian figure skater Kaetlyn Osmond dropped off the podium in Gracenote's final round of Olympic medal projections due to the inclusion of two Olympic Athletes from Russia skaters and a competitor from Japan overtaking her. © Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press via Associated Press

An international data analytics company has adjusted its medal prediction for Canada at the upcoming Winter Olympics, with Gracenote now projecting 28 podium finishes instead of the 33 it announced in January.

The latest totals also show Canada dropping to fourth in the overall medal standings, behind Norway (41), Germany (39) and the United States (29).

The new projections take into account the inclusion of the Olympic Athletes from Russia (OAR), international results that have taken place since the last report and injuries to Canadian competitors, according to Simon Gleave, Gracenote's head of analysis for sports.

Why the change?

Gleave specifically broke down which events Canadians are now projected to miss the podium in, according to Gracenote:

  • Alpine skiing: Erik Guay's withdrawal from the Games due to a back injury rules him out of medal consideration.
  • Figure skating: Kaetlyn Osmond drops off the podium due to the inclusion of two OAR skaters and a competitor from Japan overtaking her. Canada also drops out of the team event projections due to the OAR's projected gold.
  • Freestyle skiing: Marielle Thompson could still compete despite rupturing her ACL and MCL in October, but a lack of results since last March pushes her out of consideration for a medal.
  • Luge: Alex Gough lost her podium spot to Germany's Dajana Eitberger after Gough's performance at the World Cup race in January.

New projection would still beat Vancouver

The company predicts gold for bobsledder Kaillie Humphries, the Kevin Koe and Rachel Homan curling teams, moguls skier Mikael Kingsbury, snowboarders Max Parrot and Mark McMorris and the men's hockey team. McMorris was added in the latest projection after his results at the X Games in January, replacing Osmond as Canada's potential seventh gold medallist.

Even with the five-medal drop, the seven gold, nine silver and 12 bronze would still eclipse Canada's previous high of 26 medals claimed by the host team at the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver, although the breakdown there was 14 gold, seven silver and five bronze.

Canada's medal haul from 2014 remains at 25 (10 gold, 10 silver and five bronze) after the luge relay team's upgraded was denied following a successful Russian appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Gracenote projects that the Olympic Athletes from Russia will earn eight medals, down from the 20 it would have forecast for Russia.​

Gracenote's projections for Canada peaked at 33 in January, with previous predictions of 31 in November and 29 last year.

A month out from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio, the company forecasted 16 medals for Canada (three gold, eight silver and five bronze). The team won 22 with four gold, three silver and 13 bronze.

Gracenote correctly predicted the majority of Canada's medals in Rio would be won by women, who produced 16.

With files from The Canadian Press