The new projections take into account the inclusion of the Olympic Athletes from Russia (OAR), international results that have taken place since the last report and injuries to Canadian competitors, according to Simon Gleave, Gracenote's head of analysis for sports.
Why the change?
Gleave specifically broke down which events Canadians are now projected to miss the podium in, according to Gracenote:
Alpine skiing: Erik Guay's withdrawal from the Games due to a back injury rules him out of medal consideration.
Figure skating: Kaetlyn Osmond drops off the podium due to the inclusion of two OAR skaters and a competitor from Japan overtaking her. Canada also drops out of the team event projections due to the OAR's projected gold.
Freestyle skiing: Marielle Thompson could still compete despite rupturing her ACL and MCL in October, but a lack of results since last March pushes her out of consideration for a medal.
Luge: Alex Gough lost her podium spot to Germany's Dajana Eitberger after Gough's performance at the World Cup race in January.
New projection would still beat Vancouver
The company predicts gold for bobsledder Kaillie Humphries, the Kevin Koe and Rachel Homan curling teams, moguls skier Mikael Kingsbury, snowboarders Max Parrot and Mark McMorris and the men's hockey team. McMorris was added in the latest projection after his results at the X Games in January, replacing Osmond as Canada's potential seventh gold medallist.
Even with the five-medal drop, the seven gold, nine silver and 12 bronze would still eclipse Canada's previous high of 26 medals claimed by the host team at the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver, although the breakdown there was 14 gold, seven silver and five bronze.
Canada's medal haul from 2014 remains at 25 (10 gold, 10 silver and five bronze) after the luge relay team's upgraded was denied following a successful Russian appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.
Gracenote projects that the Olympic Athletes from Russia will earn eight medals, down from the 20 it would have forecast for Russia.